SCC Preview: Hamlin and Johnson are your best bets

Since Richmond wraps up the NASCAR Sprint Cup circuit's spring short-track swing, one might immediately look at results from the other two short tracks to determine who would fare well on the three-quarter-mile speedway. Even though all three short tracks are designed differently, it stands to reason that a good short-track racer is a good short-track racer. Right? Well, not necessarily. You might want to take a little different approach, according to the drivers.

Keep in mind that many drivers have said that if given the opportunity to build a race track, they would construct one like Richmond. Why? Well, it provides side-by-side racing with some speed and it's easy for the fans to see the entire track. It's an enjoyable place for the competitors and the fans. You could argue that some of those attributes apply to the circuit's other two short tracks, Bristol and Martinsville. But when you want to determine who will perform well at Richmond, look to the Southwest to Phoenix.

Granted, it may seem far-fetched, since Phoenix is a 1-mile flat track and Richmond is a three-quarter-mile facility with banking, but the drivers maintain that's the case. The 2008 statistics also show they didn't spend too much time under the scorching Arizona sun when they made that claim.

Last spring, Clint Bowyer finished second at Phoenix and then came back three weeks later and won Richmond. Five of the top 10 drivers at Phoenix also finished in the top 10 at Richmond. That doesn't count Denny Hamlin, who placed third at Phoenix, then led 381 laps at Richmond before cutting a tire and having to settle for a 24th-place finish.

This isn't a spring anomaly. It applies to the fall events last year as well, just in reverse. Six of the drivers who finished in the top 10 at Richmond also recorded top-10s at Phoenix with eventual Sprint Cup champion Jimmie Johnson winning both events. Let's take it another step. Eleven of the top 15 finishers at Richmond were also in the top 15 at Phoenix.

Naturally, there are exceptions, especially if a driver who normally performs well at one track gets caught up in a wreck at the other. Take Jeff Gordon and Dale Earnhardt Jr., for example. Earnhardt has two victories at Phoenix and three at Richmond. Yet, in the Phoenix race this year, he struggled at times and finished 31st, two laps down after getting spun by Casey Mears. Junior should do well at Richmond. Gordon has posted one win at Phoenix and two at Richmond. He, too, had less than a stellar evening at Phoenix, finishing 25th, one lap down. David Reutimann, on the other hand, started and finished eighth at Phoenix a few weeks ago, and last fall at Richmond led 104 laps before fading back to ninth place.

So, it might not be a mirage if you look into the desert at Phoenix to try and figure out what will happen Saturday night in the Virginia capital.

Jimmie Johnson, Denny Hamlin and Jeff Gordon are the top three in points scored in the first two short-track races of 2009, each finishing in the top five in both. Fourth in short-track points this year is Mark Martin, followed by Ryan Newman. Those two, along with Kyle Busch (sixth), have top-10s in both events. The remainder of the top 10: Clint Bowyer, Tony Stewart, Juan Pablo Montoya and Dale Earnhardt Jr. At 11-15 are Kasey Kahne, Jeff Burton, Marcos Ambrose, A.J. Allmendinger and Kurt Busch.

In this group, I'm ranking Jimmie Johnson (24.3), Denny Hamlin (22.8), Kyle Busch (23.0) and Tony Stewart (22.2) as the top four in that order. Those four have a chance to win the race and certainly finish in the top five. The dark horse here could be Earnhardt (21.9), a former Richmond winner who nearly won this race a year ago. I like Kurt Busch (21.0) a lot this week. He can save you some cap space and give you a shot at a top-5.

In this group, the clear No. 1 is Mark Martin (19.7). He's got a great price and should be ultra-competitive at Richmond. After that it gets a little stickier. Clint Bowyer (20.1) should be good, but was bafflingly bad at Phoenix. That's cause for a little worry. Below Martin, Ryan Newman (18.7) might be helpful, as might Juan Pablo Montoya (18.1). Kasey Kahne (19.3) has scored 261 points in first two short-track races this year so that should earn him some consideration, but he's been so-so at Richmond lately.

David Reutimann (17.9) leads the way here. He was smoking good at Richmond last fall and I liked the way he ran at Phoenix. Martin Truex Jr. (17.7) is also starting to put it together and is top-10 material at Richmond. Marcos Ambrose (16.2) should be good for a decent finish, somewhere in the top 15. You might also get a little help from A.J. Allmendinger (15.3) and Bobby Labonte (16.3). The former series champ had problems at Richmond last fall, but in three previous starts he finished 13th, 16th and 15th and some would argue he's in a better car now. Also, after he finished ninth at Phoenix, Sam Hornish Jr. (15.0) might get a little love.

Up on top of the values, why would you go with Carl Edwards, Greg Biffle, Kevin Harvick or Jeff Burton? Biffle was fifth at Phoenix and Edwards 10th, but would you rank any of these guys ahead of Johnson, Hamlin, Stewart or the Busch brothers? I wouldn't. RCR is a little off right now, so Harvick and Burton are too much risk. What about Jeff Gordon? Obviously, he's capable of big-time performance but, again, I ask the same question as above.

In the middle group, David Ragan won last week in the Nationwide Series, but didn't do much last year at Phoenix and has been inconsistent in 2009. I don't think teammates Matt Kenseth and Jamie McMurray are "buy" material, and Brian Vickers isn't, either.

"The Guru" was a goober again at Talladega on Sunday, scoring a whopping 369 points. All five of my drivers got into a wreck and the best finisher was 20th. It's an all-time low and my mom is so proud. Like the first Big One at Talladega, I'm totally blowing up my team for Richmond. The only guy I'm keeping is Mark Martin. I let go of Kyle Busch because I needed a little more cap space, but I didn't really want to make that move. I also traded in Jeff Gordon, Juan Pablo Montoya and Robby Gordon. In their place I grabbed Denny Hamlin, Kurt Busch, David Reutimann and Martin Truex Jr. That's the team I'll take into my Sunday crew chief conversations.

Mark Garrow covers fantasy racing for ESPN.com.